Home Sales Plummeting 60% to 98% Across the Globe

Home sales are plummeting 60% to 98% across the globe. We now have statistics and figures for Dubai, South Korea, China, and the UK.

Update on COVID-19

Before we talk about Real Estate, which is a secondary topic, let’s first give a rapid overview of the current situation regarding COVID-19.

The number of deaths due to Coronavirus grew from 37,552 two days ago, to 44,215 today. In China, the number of deaths per day is now relatively small (+7), while it is catastrophic currently in Spain, United Kingdom, United States.

Two graphs help understand the situation. First, the number of daily new deaths observed in China since January 22. As you can see, it peaked at 150 deaths per day, on February 23. In total, the coronavirus killed 3,312 in China so far.

Unfortunately, the United States of America is being hit much harder than China. Indeed, the USA is already at 4,100 deaths, more than China. The virus could kill between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans (NYTimes).

An impressive new tool was created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation to help prepare for the #COVID19 response in the U.S., and forecast the number of deaths. According to them, the peak of deaths will be on April 16 with 2,607 new deaths in the U.S. Their projections are 93,765 COVID-19 deaths in the United States.

How will Covid-19 affect our real estate market? Many articles are published, but very few give interesting figures. Let’s talk about numbers, facts, not sentiment.

Home Sales Plummeting 60% to 98% Globally

Most Real Estate Markets are not transparent. We don’t know the impact of the crisis, until the crisis is over. However, luckily some property markets are more evolved, and we start to get the first figures. Therefore, we can start measuring the impact of COVID-19 on real estate, with figures and statistics, not sentiment.

While we can not measure the impact on real estate prices yet, we know they will fall in most markets. Indeed, unemployment figures alone are sufficient to convince anyone: “Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates” (CNBC)

So now, let’s look at how home sales are plunging, in several property markets across the globe.

Home Sales Plummeting 40% in Dubai

According to official figures (DLD), he number of real estate transactions in Dubai has gone from 551 per day (3 March) to 9 per day (31 March). This is a decrease of 98%, in less than a month, on a daily basis.

However, comparing year on year, we get to 40.7% decrease only, comparing monthly property sales of April 2020 and April 2019 (famproperties).

As Fateh Al-Msaddi explained on Linkedin: “the market will take time to recover; however, always there are opportunities in the market to look for.”

Note: Fateh Al-Msaddi is the Chief Operating Officer at fäm Properties Dubai, one of the best Real Estate Agencies in Dubai.

China Home Sales Plunged 90%

“China Home Sales Plunged 90% in First Week of February” (Bloomberg).

Apartment sales fell 90% in Seoul, South Korea

“Daily average apartment sales fell 90% in Seoul” (TheRealDeal)

Homes sold in UK expected to plunge by 60%

“The number of homes sold in the UK is expected to fall by 60% in the next three months, according to the property website Zoopla.” (TheGuardian)